Hiring Trends for US Manufacturers: What 3 Years of Census Data Shows
If you’re a manufacturer, hiring is one of the most important decisions you can make. Bring on too few people, and you won’t be able to keep up with demand. Hire too many, and payroll starts to pile up. To see how US manufacturers have approached staffing and hours in recent years, we looked at three years of US Census data.
Key takeaways
- More manufacturers expect to be hiring in six months than currently report an increase, across every company size. For manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees, that gap is wider: 15.1% currently report an increase, while 34.7% expect one.
- Manufacturers of every size currently report more decreases in hours worked than increases, but that net is expected to turn positive for most size groups within six months.
- Mid-sized manufacturers show the clearest rebound in hours worked. For manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees, the net share expecting to add hours climbs to +20.7%, up from −0.8% currently.
- Small manufacturers face more uncertainty around hiring. The gap between current and expected hiring activity tends to widen with company size.
The hiring dilemma in manufacturing
One of the main hiring challenges manufacturers face is that roles often require specific, hard-to-replace skills. For example, things like machine operation and welding require significant training and experience, so finding an employee with the right skills can take time.
Manufacturers also contend with a persistent shortage of skilled labor, which makes it difficult to find qualified workers exactly when demand picks up. Hiring also requires a delicate balance: an unfilled role can hold back production, while adding headcount too early can cut into margins if demand doesn’t materialize.
Small manufacturers face a tighter margin for error
For a small manufacturer, hiring carries even more weight. One new hire can shift total headcount and payroll more meaningfully than it would for a large enterprise taking on a new worker.
This relative impact means small manufacturers need more certainty before adding staff, even when they’re facing a real labor gap. Small manufacturers also struggle to plan hiring in advance or move quickly when a need arises, since they typically lack dedicated recruiting staff.
These are the hiring pressures small manufacturers commonly describe. Three years of Census survey data offer a closer look at how hiring has actually trended across company sizes.
What US Census data says about how US manufacturers are hiring
To better understand the outlook US manufacturers have for hiring, we analyzed three years of data from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS).
The BTOS is a US Census Bureau survey of roughly 200,000 US businesses conducted every two weeks. The survey asks companies of all sizes and industries, including manufacturing, about their current and expected business conditions.
The survey began in September 2023, which makes its size and frequency a useful indicator of what’s actually been happening in US manufacturing. Here are the hiring trends that stood out most:
Manufacturers of all sizes expect to hire more
Throughout its three years, the BTOS has asked manufacturers to answer the following questions regarding employment count:
- In the last two weeks, how did your number of paid employees change?
- How do you expect this to change in 6 months?
Throughout the three years of the survey, a larger share of manufacturers expect to be adding employees six months from now, compared to the share currently reporting an increase.
The gap between current and expected employee count is smallest for very small manufacturers. The smallest manufacturers (1 to 4 employees) show the narrowest gap: 3.1% currently report a hiring increase, while 10.1% expect one.
This gap mostly widens as company size grows. Manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees show the widest gap: 15.1% currently report a hiring increase, while 34.7% expect one.
Who’s planning to hire
Share of manufacturers reporting a recent increase in employee count vs. expecting one within 6 months, by company size
- Reported increase – last 2 weeks
- Expected increase – 6 months out
U.S. Census Bureau BTOS · full 3-year average, Sept 2023 – Aug 2026 · company size in employees
A turnaround in hours
As part of the survey, US manufacturers are also asked the following questions regarding hours worked by employees:
- In the last two weeks, how did your total number of hours worked by paid employees change?
- How do you expect this to change in 6 months?
What we saw from our analysis is that fewer manufacturers expect to be cutting hours six months from now than are cutting hours currently, which suggests the current slowdown in hours is expected to ease.
This trend is evident for manufacturers of different sizes:
- Very small manufacturers (1 to 4 employees): 18.3% currently cutting hours, compared with 13.1% expecting to in six months.
- Manufacturers with 20 to 49 employees: 19.8% currently cutting hours, compared with 12.7% expecting to.
- Manufacturers with 50 to 99 employees: 19.9% currently cutting hours, compared with 13.4% expecting to.
- Manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees: 19.2% currently cutting hours, compared with 12.8% expecting to.
However, the fact that fewer manufacturers are expecting to cut hours is part of the picture. A larger share of manufacturers also expect to be adding hours.
For example, 18.4% of manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees currently report an increase in hours, while 33.5% expect one.
Looking at both trends together gives a clearer picture. We subtracted the share of manufacturers expecting to cut hours from the share expecting to add them. This gave us a net expected increase for manufacturers of every size (except for the smallest group).
The chart below shows this net change in hours, both current and expected.
Hours worked expected to turn positive
Net share reporting rising vs. falling hours worked (Increase − Decrease), now vs. expected in 6 months, by company size
- Current net – last 2 weeks
- Expected net – 6 months out
U.S. Census Bureau BTOS · full 3-year average, Sept 2023 – Aug 2026 · company size in employees
The data shows that when asked about their current conditions, more manufacturers report cutting hours than adding them. In other words, the current net is negative for every size group.
Six months out, that net turns positive for most groups, though not evenly.
For the smallest manufacturers (1 to 4 employees), the expected net falls short of zero, at −0.6%. This means the share expecting to add hours is still just below the share expecting to cut them, which doesn’t indicate a real turnaround.
However, the turnaround in hours becomes clearer as company size increases. For manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees, the net share of manufacturers expecting to add hours, versus cut them, climbs to +20.7%.
Small manufacturers less optimistic about hiring
The difference between current and expected increases in employee count becomes more noticeable as company size grows. Current versus expected hours worked show this same trend.
We can’t say for certain the reason behind this trend, but it likely comes down to hiring capacity and confidence in hiring, rather than genuine labor requirements.
For example, larger manufacturers typically have dedicated HR personnel and recruiting infrastructure, which makes it easier to commit to a hiring plan six months in advance.
On the other hand, while a small manufacturer with 10 employees may need to add headcount or hours, they might lack the infrastructure to actually find and take on new hires. In addition, very small manufacturers might be less certain about their short-term financial outlook and not as willing to plan for new hires.
You might also be interested in What 3 Years of Census Data Reveals About US Pricing Pressure
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