What 3 Years of Census Data Reveals About US Pricing Pressure
Over the past three years, the US Census Bureau has asked thousands of manufacturers how they see their prices changing. The answers reveal an interesting story that has been building across the industry. In this report, we discuss the strongest pricing trends in US manufacturing, based on three years of US Census Data.
Key takeaways
- Both prices charged and prices paid rose sharply across every company size. Between September 2023 and August 2026, the share of manufacturers reporting a price increase climbed for businesses of every size, whether in what they charge customers or what they pay suppliers.
- Mid-sized manufacturers saw the steepest increase, but they started from behind. Manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees show the sharpest rise in reported price increases over the past three years, but small manufacturers already reported higher price-increase shares back in 2023, so mid-sized manufacturers are catching up rather than pulling ahead.
- Manufacturers expect even more price increases ahead. Across every size group, a larger share of manufacturers expect prices to rise in the next six months than currently report a recent increase.
- This looks like a sustained trend, not a short-term spike. Three years of consistent data show pricing pressure building steadily, and manufacturers of every size expect that pressure to continue.
- Small manufacturers have less room to absorb these changes. They typically operate on thinner margins, have less leverage with customers, and are more hesitant to pass rising costs along, which makes every pricing decision carry more weight.
The pricing squeeze: why manufacturers feel it most
For many businesses, making pricing decisions is relatively straightforward: charge enough to cover costs and still turn a profit. However, for manufacturers, pricing comes with many challenges.
Manufacturers source materials from different suppliers at different costs, which makes it difficult to keep track of what it actually costs to make a product. At the same time, production costs like overhead and labor make it even harder to determine true product costs.
When rising costs aren’t accounted for and factored into pricing, profit margins start to fall. However, simply raising prices isn’t always a simple fix. Price increases can damage customer relationships, hurt sales, and reduce repeat business. This leaves manufacturers walking a fine line. Either absorb rising costs and watch margins shrink, or pass costs on and risk losing business.
Why small manufacturers are more susceptible to price changes
Larger manufacturers typically have the financial flexibility to absorb cost increases and adjust prices as they see fit. But a small manufacturer doesn’t have this same cushion.
When suppliers raise their prices, this affects a small manufacturer’s bottom line almost immediately. Raising prices charged to customers is an option, but it comes with a risk of losing customers. And because small to mid-sized manufacturers typically operate on thinner margins, every pricing decision carries more weight.
Pricing decisions also feel more personal for small manufacturers. For example, raising prices on a long-standing customer can damage a relationship that took years to build. This means that many small manufacturers will hesitate before passing rising costs along, even as margins thin out as a result.
These are the general challenges small to mid-sized manufacturers face when it comes to pricing. To see what manufacturers of different sizes are actually saying about their prices, we analyzed three years of survey data from the US Census Bureau.
What US Census data reveals about pricing pressure in American manufacturing
The Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) is a national survey in which the US Census Bureau surveys 200,000 businesses.
The survey takes place every two weeks and asks US companies to answer questions related to their current and expected business conditions. Survey participants include businesses of all sizes, from a range of industries, including manufacturing.
The BTOS has been taking place since September 2023. Given its large sample size and bi-weekly polling frequency, it provides a reliable view of what’s actually been happening with US manufacturers for the past three years. The survey asks manufacturers the following questions related to pricing:
- In the last two weeks, how did the prices you charge for your own goods or services change? How do you think this will change six months from now?
- In the last two weeks, how did the prices you pay for goods or services change? How do you think this will change six months from now?
Below are the strongest pricing trends we found, based on three years of responses to these questions.
Prices are climbing across the board
Every two weeks, the BTOS asks manufacturers to describe how the prices they charge customers and the prices they pay suppliers have changed.
We took the responses from the first three waves of the survey (September to October 2023), and compared them with the three most recent waves (June to August 2026). This revealed a clear pattern:
The prices US manufacturers charge customers and the prices they pay suppliers, have both risen sharply from September 2023 to August 2026.
This trend is consistent among manufacturers of all sizes, with the strongest case among mid-sized manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees. For manufacturers of this size, the share reporting an increase in prices charged rose from 8.8% to 23.2%. Those reporting an increase in prices paid rose from 26.5% to 48.9%.
The shift is less noticeable for small manufacturers. For the smallest manufacturers (1 to 4 employees), the share reporting an increase in prices charged rose from 16.4% to 23.2%. Prices paid rose from 43.7% to 52.0%, a real but comparatively modest increase.
Small manufacturers were the most likely to report a price increase in 2023. The shift for mid-sized manufacturers over the past three years looks more dramatic.
However, as the graph below shows, it’s not that mid-sized manufacturers are pulling ahead, but rather that they’re catching up to where small manufacturers already were in 2023.
Prices charged and paid have been rising
Share of manufacturers reporting a price increase, first three survey cycles vs. most recent three cycles, by company size
- First 3 cycles – Sept–Oct 2023
- Latest 3 cycles – June–Aug 2026
Prices charged to customers
Prices paid to suppliers
U.S. Census Bureau BTOS · first 3 survey cycles (Sept–Oct 2023) vs. most recent 3 cycles (June–Aug 2026) · company size in employees
Note: F and G group charged-price figures for the earliest window are based on 2 of 3 cycles due to data suppression
Manufacturers expect prices to increase
We also looked at the average responses for these pricing questions across all three years of the survey.
What we found is that the share of manufacturers expecting a price increase six months out (both what they charge customers and pay suppliers) is consistently larger than the share currently reporting a price increase.
The chart below clearly illustrates this gap.
Manufacturers are expecting pricing pressure
Share of manufacturers reporting a recent price increase vs. expecting one within 6 months, by company size (3-yr avg)
- Reported increase – last 2 weeks
- Expected increase – 6 months out
Prices charged to customers
Prices paid to suppliers
U.S. Census Bureau BTOS · full 3-year average, Sept 2023 – Aug 2026 · company size in employees
The gap between current price increases and expected price increases is also tied to company size.
The smallest difference is for very small manufacturers (1 to 4 employees). 17.9% say prices they charge increased in the last two weeks, while 37.7% expect prices to be higher six months from now. On the paying side, 45.1% report a recent increase, while 58.5% expect prices to rise in six months.
The widest gap can be seen in manufacturers with 100 to 249 employees. 14.1% report a recent increase in prices charged, while 40.5% expect an increase in six months. Similarly, 33.5% report a recent increase in prices paid, while 56.7% expect one within six months.
What this could mean for the years ahead
Three years of data point to one clear pattern: pricing pressure in US manufacturing hasn’t been a short-term spike, but a sustained climb. And manufacturers of every size expect it to continue.
Small manufacturers have less room to maneuver than larger competitors. Thinner margins, less leverage with customers, and a real hesitation to pass rising costs along all make it more difficult to manage price changes.
If pricing pressure continues, the manufacturers best positioned to manage prices may be the ones with the most accurate product costing. This would require things like disciplined cost tracking, accurate allocation of overhead and labor across each product, and regularly updating material costs as supplier prices shift.
This kind of visibility used to be harder to justify for smaller manufacturers, since the tools built for it were often designed with large enterprises in mind. However, cloud-based manufacturing software now brings that same kind of visibility within reach. For example, MRPeasy lets small manufacturers track production costs, manage suppliers, and monitor cost of goods sold in real time, without a large upfront investment or complex implementation.
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