{"id":4430,"date":"2020-01-07T11:27:13","date_gmt":"2020-01-07T11:27:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/?p=4430"},"modified":"2024-12-20T10:16:43","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T10:16:43","slug":"forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Practice in Manufacturing Business"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The forecast is an effective tool for planning and managing any type of manufacturing business. Regardless of the industry type, it will reduce the risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p><em>You can also listen to this article:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Forecasting Practice in Manufacturing Business\" height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/media\/player\/s7hc3-d68472?from=pb6admin&amp;download=1&amp;version=1&amp;auto=0&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Helvetica&amp;skin=1&amp;pfauth=&amp;btn-skin=103\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business.jpg\" alt=\"forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\" class=\"wp-image-4431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Each organization continually pursues certainty in a significantly changing business world. We can see today new products in the market, others becoming obsolete, new technologies that revolutionize the ways of doing, customer preferences, fashion, laws and regulations, and so on. They push each organization to find ways to expect what happens in continuous hustle and bustle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, it is also true that every business has the means to organize data so\nthat it can operate better in this changing global context. One of the tools to resolve this issue is the\nforecast.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"banner-v2\">\n    <p class=\"banner-v2__desc\">Easily forecast your material requirements with MRPeasy<\/p>\n    <a class=\"banner-v2__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/sign-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-ga-event=\"blog_signup_banner_blue\">Try for free<\/a>\n<\/div>\t\t<style>.banner-v2 {\n    float: right;\n    display: flex;\n    flex-direction: column;\n    justify-content: center;\n    align-items: center;\n    padding: 40px 32px;\n    gap: 16px;\n    width: 356px;\n    height: 205px;\n    background: linear-gradient(199.68deg, #6084E5 13.17%, #5FA7DD 82.1%);\n    border-radius: 4px;\n    margin-left: 12px;\n    margin-bottom: 12px;\n    margin-top: 15px;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 767.98px) {\n    .banner-v2 {\n         width: 100%;\n         height: 173px;\n         margin-bottom: 0;\n         margin-left: 0;\n    }\n}\n\n.single__content p.banner-v2__desc {\n    margin: 0 !important;\n}\n\np.banner-v2__desc {\n    width: 292px;\n    font-style: normal;\n    font-weight: 700;\n    font-size: 22px;\n    line-height: 29px !important;\n    text-align: center;\n    color: #FFFFFF;\n    margin: 0 !important;\n    order: 0 !important;\n}\n\n.single__content a.banner-v2__link {\n    color: #FFFFFF !important;\n}\n\n.single__content a.banner-v2__link:hover {\n    color: #003557 !important;\n}\n\na.banner-v2__link {\n    display: flex;\n    justify-content: center;\n    align-items: center;\n    width: 181px;\n    height: 51px;\n    padding: 18px 0;\n    border-radius: 4px;\n    background: #003557;\n    font-weight: 700;\n    font-size: 16px;\n    color: #FFFFFF !important;\n    text-decoration: none !important;\n    order: 1 !important;\n}\n\n.banner-v2__link:hover {\n    background: white;\n    color: #003557 !important;\n}<\/style>\n\t\t\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_80 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #343333;color:#343333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #343333;color:#343333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#What_is_the_Forecast\" >What is the Forecast?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#Time_Horizon\" >Time Horizon<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#Quantitative_and_Qualitative_Forecast\" >Quantitative and Qualitative Forecast<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#Roles_of_Forecasting_in_Supply_Chain_Management\" >Roles of Forecasting in Supply Chain Management<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#Forecasting_within_Manufacturing_Environments\" >Forecasting within Manufacturing Environments<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/forecasting-practice-in-manufacturing-business\/#Benefits_of_using_Forecasting_in_manufacturing\" >Benefits of using Forecasting in manufacturing<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_Forecast\"><\/span>What is the Forecast?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast consists of the\nestimation of a given variable in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The main goal is to anticipate what will happen in the immediate or mediate future. Forward forecasting is not a prediction, but a way to influence the future. Then it is possible to build a plan with the least possible variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecasts are applicable to different functions of the organization,\nsuch as for example: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A Sales Forecast of a specific product or a family of products already in the market<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A Forecast to determine the volume demand of an innovative product<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A Financial Forecast for profit and loss statements, balance sheets and other cash-flow forecasts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A Material Forecast to ensure all the resources meet customer demand in time and quantity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Time_Horizon\"><\/span>Time Horizon<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Whenever we consider a\nforecast, it is necessary to determine the involved period of time. These\nperiods can be classified in the following categories: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Short term, going from a few days to a few months<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Medium term, from a few months to a few years<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long term, considering several years<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Depending on the demand pattern, it can be classified as trending, seasonal, cyclical, or erratic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The trending follows a continuous upward or downward pattern and is applicable for the long term.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The seasonal pattern occurs when a series is influenced by seasonal factors and is predictable, generally throughout a year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The cyclical is similar to the seasonal with fluctuation of more than 2 years and is generally due to economic and political factors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The erratic pattern shows a random behavior and is composed of unexpected non-repeating events<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Quantitative_and_Qualitative_Forecast\"><\/span>Quantitative and Qualitative Forecast <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There are basically two types of tools, quantitative forecast, and qualitative forecast. An example of a quantitative one is based on a historical data like the volume of sales last year, while a qualitative tool can be the opinion of experts about the development of a new line of products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The quantitative techniques\nare based on models of mathematics and in nature are mostly objective. They are\nhighly dependent on mathematical calculations, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Time series <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Regression Analysis<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Run Rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, the qualitative techniques rely upon the knowledge of highly experienced people. They provide insights into future outcomes. For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Market surveys <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Delphi method <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employee experience<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Roles_of_Forecasting_in_Supply_Chain_Management\"><\/span>Roles of Forecasting in Supply Chain Management<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasting plays three major roles in Supply Chain Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It\u2019s a pillar in strategic planning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasting is fundamental for Strategic Business Planning. They are used for financial planning, risk assessment, and business expansion. On the other hand, assumptions start from the forecasts like profit margins, cash flows, expenses, material turnover, etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It helps any organization to streamline the push system of the supply chain<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasting is the starting point for all push processes of the supply chain. They are used for material planning, procurement, inbound logistics, and manufacturing. On the other hand, the forecast helps to optimize the inventory levels and to increase the usage of the factory capacity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It helps any organization to streamline the pull processes of the supply chain<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasting is the starting point for all the pull processes of the supply chain. They are used for order management, packaging, and outbound logistics. On the other hand, the forecast helps to optimize the distribution system as well as increase the customer service level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Forecasting_within_Manufacturing_Environments\"><\/span>Forecasting within Manufacturing Environments<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To reduce variability and\nrisk, every organization requires resources. These resources are labor,\nmaterials, energy, cash, etc., and they respond to the present and future\ndemand. Let&#8217;s look at the example in\nwhich the material forecast is made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s assume an organization has a sales plan for the next quarter. This plan is used by the Planning team to generate the corresponding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/what-is-master-production-schedule\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Master Production Schedule (MPS)<\/a>. The MPS is the basis to determine the amount of material that the organization requires each week or month for the next three months. For this, it is necessary to proceed with a Bill of Materials (BOM) explosion. The BOM explosion calculates the total number of required purchasable parts and materials. It allows materials to be combined following a defined routing to get a unit of production. The explosion considers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Quantities through a diagram of the parent-child relationship.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Time factor, using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/backward-scheduling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">backward scheduling<\/a>. It starts from the manufacturing delivery date backward till the date of actual need in the factory.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The explosion can be established using ERP software. Finally, it is possible, to sum up all the materials that the organization will need in the future. It is also possible to add all existing plants, in the case of multi-site companies, in order to centralize purchasing orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also important to remark that it is possible to include or not the current inventory levels. In case the organization follows a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/make-to-stock-mts-manufacturing-process-flow-and-best-practices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Make to Stock (MTS)<\/a> manufacturing strategy, material inventory will be included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Summarizing, the material forecast allows to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Determine the resources required in the factory (machine, personnel, time)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Calculate <a aria-label=\"material requirements (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/material-requirements-planning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">material requirements<\/a> for building products (BOM explosion)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Activate purchasing orders<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Create an inventory of materials to operate as a buffer against contingencies in the supply chain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Creating working orders <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adjust and ensure compliance with delivery orders with customers and keep a high service level.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Optimize the Capacity Level of the organization, considering machinery constrains<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Balance the workload. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"banner-v1\">\n    <div class=\"banner__text\">\n        <div class=\"banner-v1__title\">Start accurately planning and scheduling production<\/div>\n        <div class=\"banner-v1__desc\">MRPeasy integrates sales, purchases, production, inventory, and finances to provide your with an accurate real-time overview of your operations.<\/div>\n        <div><a class=\"banner-v1__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/sign-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-ga-event=\"blog_signup_banner_white\">Try for free<\/a><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"banner__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/themes\/mrpeasy\/assets\/images\/banner.svg\" alt=\"banner\">\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Benefits_of_using_Forecasting_in_manufacturing\"><\/span>Benefits of using Forecasting in manufacturing<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Follow delivery commitments to customers on time and in shape<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Determine idle capacity or overcapacity of the plant and balance it<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increase administrative and operational efficiency<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reduce the over inventory of raw material, WIP and finished product<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Optimization of the organization&#8217;s resources<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Product cost reduction and ROI increase<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast is an effective tool for planning and managing any type of manufacturing business. Regardless of the industry type, it will reduce the uncertainty and the risks of your business. In sum, it will contribute to making your company more competitive and get greater profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>You may also like: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mrpeasy.com\/blog\/demand-forecasting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"What Is Demand Forecasting and What Can MRP Software Do With It? (opens in a new tab)\">What Is Demand Forecasting and What Can MRP Software Do With It?<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forecast is an effective tool for planning and managing any type of manufacturing business. Regardless of the industry type, it will reduce the risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,93,384],"tags":[50,3,168,170,169],"class_list":["post-4430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tips","category-production-planning","category-supply-chain-management","tag-inventory-management","tag-manufacturing","tag-manufacturing-business","tag-material-forecast","tag-supply-chain-management"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting Practice in Manufacturing Business - Blog for Manufacturers and Distributors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The forecast is an effective tool for planning and managing any type of manufacturing business. 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